1 Sebas�an Weissenberger, Département science et technologie (Department of Science and Technology), Université Téluq Study on the impacts of climate change on cri�cal infrastructure in the transporta�on and communica�ons sectors and the consequen�al impacts on their interdependencies Presented to the Standing Senate Commitee on Transport and Communica�ons Panel 1 on Tuesday, October 31, 2023 1. Introduc�on The presenta�on focuses on coastal and flood-prone areas in Quebec and New Brunswick, where most of my research work takes place.

My research topics focus on vulnerability and adapta�on to climate change, par�cularly in coastal areas, and include land use planning issues , emergency preparedness, coastal protec�on and other adapta�on measures. This research work is conducted in partnership with municipali�es, NGOs, regional service commissions, college centres for the transfer of technology (CCTTs), etc. Consequently, the following text reflects some of their concerns. The presenta�on will first look at hazards and risks affec�ng coastal areas, and how they are likely to be amplified by climate change.

It will then examine the impacts on transport infrastructure in both provinces, and provide examples of adapta�on measures. Lastly, it proposes a number of poten�ally interes�ng case studies. 2. Hazards and risks Science o�en differen�ates between the concepts of a hazard and a risk; a hazard is defined as a natural event affec�ng an area while a risk is defined as the poten�al losses and harms resul�ng from this hazard. A number of concerns must be exposed to the hazard in ques�on in order for a hazard to present a risk.

The concerns could be sensi�ve ecosystems or infrastructures and other human setlements that could be nega�vely affected by the hazard. In

summary: hazard + concern = risk. In the context of studying vulnerability, there are generally three components of vulnerability, as indicated, for example, in reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC): exposure, sensi�vity and capacity to adapt.

Exposure characterizes the presence of ecosystems, infrastructure and people in the areas that could be affected by the hazards and the impacts of climate change; sensi�vity refers to the degree to which these concerns are likely to be adversely affected, and capacity to adapt means the various ways in which ecosystems or human systems are able to mi�gate the nega�ve impact resul�ng from exposure and sensi�vity. In the case of coastal areas, the main risks are related to erosion and submersion.

It is important to point out that although these are natural phenomena, they can be accelerated by the effects of climate change. Increased risks, due to climate change, can be atributed to several different causes, including: - More severe and/or more frequent storms: both the historical data and the models suggest that storms will become more intense because of climate change (but not necessarily more frequent).

In eastern Canada, several types of storms can be iden�fied, such as tropical storms coming from the Gulf of Mexico, and Nor’easters, which have different dynamics. - Changes in winter condi�ons: the absence or thinning of sea ice for longer periods of the year exposes coasts to more significant damage during winter storms, since the ice serves to protect the coast from the effect of waves . On coasts dominated by glacial deposits, gelifrac�on

2 significantly contributes to erosion, as this phenomenon is accelerated by more frequent freezing and thawing episodes in winter. - Rising sea levels: this is a gradual and rela�vely slow process, which con�nues for a long period of �me and constantly lowers the threshold for damaging or catastrophic flooding (please refer to the following sec�on for more informa�on). In other flood-prone areas, flooding could become more frequent as a result of more intense rainfall, faster mel�ng of snow in the spring and greater accumula�on of snow.

In estuaries, these effects could combine with the effects of winter storms and high �des, as is the case in the Bay of Fundy. Depending on the characteris�cs of the terrain, flooding may trigger landslides that cause significant damage to infrastructure. 3. Rising sea levels Given the importance of this phenomenon in the future, it would be useful to examine it more closely. Rising sea levels can be atributed to two causes: thermal expansion of ocean waters and mel�ng glaciers, including the icecaps in Greenland and Antarc�ca.

To date (period from 1901-2028), the mean sea level has increased by 20 cm (IPCC, 6th Assessment Report, 2021). This number, in itself, seems quite modest, but takes on a whole new significance when we realize that the rate of sea level rise has increased by a factor of 100 since the beginning of the century (Figure 1). Figure 1. Increase in sea levels over the past 300 years Source: Weissenberger, 2023 A c c o r d i n g t o f o r e c a s t s b y t h e I P C C , (6th Assessment Report,

Chapter 9), a further rise of 38 cen�metres to 77 cen�metres is expected by 2100, depending on the climate scenario, but these figures do not reflect the accelerated mel�ng of the icecaps, since this involves too much uncertainty. The increase could therefore be greater than forecasts. However, it is important to fully understand the �me frames involved. Thermal expansion of ocean waters is linked to ocean mixing over roughly a thousand years. The mel�ng of icecaps is a very slow process that takes place over centuries and millennia; it is also a phenomenon that is difficult to reverse,

3 because the mel�ng process is triggered once a certain warming threshold is exceeded and will be difficult to stop, even by c onsiderably reducing CO 2 emissions. For Greenland’s icecap, which would account for roughly 7 m of sea rise, this threshold was es�mated at approximately 1.7°C – 2.3°C (Bochow et al., 2023), which, according to Climate Ac�on Tracker (2022), is lower than temperature projec�ons for the end of the century (2.6-2.9°C), based on current policies and the targets announced by countries around the world (2.4°C).

According to an ar�cle published in Nature, in October 2023, models show that the West Antarc�c icecap , which would account for roughly 5.3 m of sea rise, remains un stable under every emissions scenario envisaged (Naughten et al., 2023). Therefore, figures for 2100 a r e j u s t a snapshot in �me; the phe nomenon will con�nue over centuries. Consequently, the IPCC (6th Assessment Report) es�mates that, depending on the degree of instability of the icecaps, the increase in sea levels will range from 6.8 m – 16 m by 2300. Paleoclimate data also support this point of view.

During the last ice age (which had roughly the same temperature as expected by the end of the century), sea level was 6-7 m higher; during the Pliocene epoch, three million years ago (with CO2 concentra�ons simi l a r t o t o d a y ’ s levels), it was 20 m higher (Archer, 2016). It is therefore clear that rising sea levels is a phenomenon that should be considered over several centuries, even a�er stabiliza�on of atmospheric CO2 concentra�ons (Figure 2). Figure 2.

Increase in sea level by component in the centuries to come Mel�ng glaciers: several millennia Thermal expansion: centuries to millennia Stabiliza�on of temperatures: a few centuries Stabiliza�on of CO2: 100-300 years CO2 emissions Source: adapted from IPCC, 2001/Bounford.com and UNEP/GRID-Arendal, 2006.

4 4. Concerns vulnerable to climate change In coastal regions, one of the main areas of concern, in terms of vulnerability to climate change, is transport infrastructure: - Roads - Railways - Port infrastructure (which will not be covered here, since it falls outside my area of research). These transporta�on corridors may become impassable during hydrometeorological hazards ( storm, submersion, flooding , torren�al rain ); due to flood s or submersions , the presence of debris or the occurrence of landslides, these infrastructures may become damaged or seriously weakened.

Ice storms could become more freq uent due to an increase in freezing rain , but since this is not yet sufficiently documented, it will not be covered in this presenta�on. Occupa�on of the territory creates a par�cularly vulnerable situa�on in Quebec and New Brunswick.

In fact, a large propor�on of the popula�on and, consequently, the infrastructure, (like roads or railways), are o�en located along the coast (such as Route 132 in the Gaspé region, Route 138 on the North Shore, Route 113 on the Acadian Peninsula, Route 114 along the Bay of Fundy, or Route 119 in the Magdalen Islands), as are several other secondary, local and municipal roads (Figure 3). In eastern Quebec, close to 60% of na�onal roads are located less than 500 metres from the shoreline (Drejza et al., 2014).

This means that these roads are o�en cut off or damaged, causing a great deal of inconvenience and significant costs (Figure 3). Figure 3. (a), (

b) Shoreline stabilization, Route 132 in Baie-des-Chaleurs, Gaspé region, (c), (

d) Damage to Route 535 and Route 113 due to storms and coastal erosion

a) b)

c) d)

5 Source: (a), (b), (

d) S. Weissenberger, 2011-2012, (

c) N. Bastien/UMoncton, 2010 In some cases, although not very o�en, roads have had to be completely relocated because of coastal erosion and rebuilt further inland (Figure 4). However, it is reasonable to believe that due to accelerated coastal erosion and the fact that much of the road infrastructure is located close to the coast, this could become a more frequent occurrence, at least to stabilize the coastline with protec�ve works. In some loca�ons, like in the north of the Gaspé region or the Lower St.

Lawrence region, there is no likelihood of obvious erosion due to the presence of cliffs close to the seashore. Figure 4. Abandoned road that was “relocated” to Richibuctou Head Lighthouse/Cap Lumière, NB Source: P. Jordan/New Brunswick Department of Environment, n.d. One par�cular problem is that in many loca�ons, there are o�en few or no bypass roads and this causes major problems for supplies (such as water, m edica�on), emergency s ervices (fire, flooding, m edical emergencies, repairing power lines), or even for evacua�ng the popula�on when necessary. Consequently, during the flooding in the St.

John River valley in 2018, residents of isolated communi�es had to be evacuated by the Coast Guard. Another problem is access to cri�cal infrastructure, like government buildings, hospitals or fire sta�ons. In some ci�es like Fredericton, these infrastructures can themselves be submerged or rendered inaccessible when access roads and ramps to bridges become impassable. Since these situa�ons can last for as long as

6 one week (like during the spring floods in 2018), this presents major social risks, health risks (for example, pa�ents needing dialysis) and safety risks. In southern New Brunswick, two major transporta�on routes are par�cularly vulnerable, specifically, in the area of the St. John River valley (for Route 2) and the Tantramar Marshes (Isthmus of Chignecto): - Via Rail’s Ocean line, the oldest named passenger train in North America (inaugurated in 1904), makes use of tracks owned by CN and transported 78,353 passengers in 2019 (there were twice as many passengers twenty years ago before service reduc�ons).

However, in July 2023, for example, service on this train was interrupted because of landslides triggered by flooding. One of the challenges of transpor�ng passengers stems from the fact that the tracks are owned by CN, and consequently, Via Rail has no control over track quality and repairs.

The railway line is also vital for transporta�on of merchandise from the Port of Halifax; 60% of cargo is transported to the West by rail. - The Trans-Canada Highway/Route 2, which is not only used by over 900,000 vehicles per year between Moncton and Halifax, but is also used to transport a volume of goods es�mated at over 18 billion dollars per year, was closed in both 2018 and 2019, as a result of flooding along the St. John River.

In the Isthmus of Chignecto, between Sackville and Amherst, the CN track also serves as a dyke that protects the Trans-Canada Highway, power lines and pipelines (Figure 5) Figure 5: Configuration of transport tracks in the Isthmus of Chignecto. Source: Bill Casey, former Member of Parliament for Cumberland— Colchester, in Transport Action Canada

(2023) 7 5. How to adapt There is no single solu�on; instead, there are many ways to adapt: - Repairing infrastructure (reac�ve adapta�on) - Ar�ficial protec�on - Natural protec�on - Emergency planning - Land-use planning - Upgrading infrastructure (proac�ve adapta�on) Without adapta�on measures, the costs for repairing and maintaining transporta�on infrastructure are considerable. In Bri�sh Columbia, sources indicate that highway repairs following the flooding in 2021 would range from close to half a billion dollars to one billion dollars.

In Ontario, the Financial Accountability Office es�mates that costs for maintaining roads, pavements, bridges and railway tracks could increase to 1.5 billion dollars per year over a decade . A study en�tled “ Cos�ng Climate Impacts to Public Infrastructure (CIPI)” (htps://fao-on.org/en/cipi) is exemplary because it provides a detailed and granular assessment of the cost of changes associated with extreme rainfall, extreme heat and freeze-thaw cycles based on three emission scenarios (FAO, 2022).

It would be interes�ng to undertake a pan-Canadian study of this kind using a standard methodology to establish a baseline scenario, which would also facilitate an analysis of the cost-damages ra�o avoided by adapta�on projects or strategies. This analysis should also look at costs incurred by both individuals and the private sector for maintaining vehicles, supply chain disrup�ons and road conges�on, which would also run into billions (Ness et al., 2021).

The two examples of adapta�on measures provided below illustrate the benefits of planning proac�vely, rather than reac�vely, and working collabora�vely , by involving communi�es in establishing priori�es, developing solu�ons and making decisions. 1) The city of Fredericton, NB, has implemented the mainstreaming of adapta�ons to climate change in its municipal planning process.

It uses historical georeferenced flood data and climate model projec�ons to iden�fy transporta�on infrastructures that are vulnerable to the current and future impacts of extreme events and provides for upgrades to these infrastructures during planned maintenance, for example, resizing ducts when they are being replaced or raising the level of a road during resurfacing. This helps reduce costs as compared to stand-alone adapta�on measures. 2) Pointe-au-Chêne, NB, which is located on a peninsula, would regularly get cut off from the mainland during flooding.

Following a par�cipatory ac�on research project led by Omer Chouinard, and conducted at the Université de Moncton, the municipality iden�fied the raising of the bridge as an adapta�on priority and succeeded in obtaining funding from the Department of Transporta�on to raise the bridge. The bridge was built in 2009 and this solu�on proved effec�ve as early as 2010, when waters during a storm reached record levels but failed to flood the new bridge (Figure 6).

8 Figure 6. The new raised bridge (left). Even during the storm of 2010, it was not submerged (right). Source: (left) S. Weissenberger, 2012; (right) S. Doiron, 2010 The transporta�on network’s vulnerability to the impacts of climate change remains a challenge for both the municipali�es and individuals required to manage emergency situa�ons and deal with damages and interrup�ons to transporta�on corridors. Lastly, the vulnerability of the transporta�on network can be linked to land use. In our interviews in St.

John and Fredericton, to give just two examples, managers noted the existence of residen�al sectors that were either located in or accessed via flood-prone areas. This therefore raises the following ques�on: depending on responsibility for the roadways in ques�on, how feasible is it for municipali�es or provinces to offer safe passage to all residents, irrespec�ve of cost, in terms of repairing and upgrading roadways, providing emergency services and ensuring evacua�on during a crisis?

According to several par�cipants in our projects, long-term costs for adap�ng to climate change would be considerably reduced by avoiding developments in flood -prone areas and, if applicable, reloca�ng residents who suffer damages repeatedly.

9 6 Relevant case studies 6.1 Gaspé region Reason: - A region primarily served by one coastal road (Route 132), with few bypass op�ons into the back country. - One cause was the closure of several villages by the Government of Quebec in the early 1970s, except for a few that were part of Opera�on Dignity. - Isola�on was exacerbated by the suspension of Via Rail’s Chaleur train service between 2011 and 2013 (return- to-service scheduled for 2026, according to Quebec’s Minister of Transporta�on and Sustainable Mobility). - Topography and geomorphology show that transport infrastructures are vulnerable to climate change, par�cularly, the narrow, low-lying coastlines in the north and the cliffs composed of glacial �ll in the south, suscep�ble to gelifrac�on. - A wealth of scien�fic data, as a result of the work conducted by UQAR and the Laboratoire de dynamique et de ges�on intégrée des zones cô�ères. - A social context characterized by devitaliza�on of several villages and an aging popula�on. 6.2 Acadian Peninsula Reason: - Remote territory close to the sea with two islands (Miscou and Lamèque) connected by bridges. - Territory is vulnerable to rising sea levels due to its low eleva�on (for example, Le Goulet) - Roads located along the seashore (routes 11, 305, 313, part of 113). - Route 113, which connects the mainland to Lamèque and Miscou extends over two bridges.

The Lamèque – Shippagan bridge, in par�cular, is considered obsolete. It also carries power lines, such that the islands are disconnected from the power grid during repairs. - A regional adapta�on plan spearheaded by Valorès (formerly known as the Coastal Zones Research Ins�tute), resul�ng from longstanding coopera�on with the Acadian Peninsula Regional Service Commission and the Université de Moncton. 6.3 The Lower estuary of the St.

John River/Wolastoq Reason: - Presence of cri�cal transport infrastructure (Trans-Canada Highway/CN tracks) and a large popula�on in a territory that is exposed to river flooding and marine submersion. - The geographic situa�on exposes the region to several causes of floods: river flooding during the snow melt in the spring�me, tropical or extra-tropical storms combined with excep�onally high �des in the Bay of Fundy. - Excep�onal floods occurred in 2018 and 2019, requiring mobiliza�on of emergency services by municipali�es, the province, and even experts on secondment from Alberta. - In Fredericton, several cri�cal infrastructure sites (government centres, hospitals) are flooded or become inaccessible during a flood. - Both Fredericton and St.

John have neighbourhoods located in flood-prone areas or neighbourhoods that become inaccessible in the event of flooding; this problem has been flagged by emergency managers, but no solu�on has been implemented to date.

10 - In rural areas, par�cularly in the coun�es of Queens and Kings, road closures are o�en caused by flooding and landslides. During spring floods in 2018, 81 roads were cut off, forcing the Coast Guard to intervene in order to evacuate residents. - The City of Fredericton implemented a number of adapta�on strategies, including plans to upgrade infrastructure during scheduled maintenance, based on detailed analyses of historical events and climate model projec�ons that can serve as examples. 6.4 The Isthmus of Chignecto Reason: - Shares some of the same characteris�cs as the Lower estuary of the St.

John River/Wolastoq, given the presence of the Trans-Canada Highway and Via Rail’s Ocean train connec�ng Moncton to Halifax.

Since the Senate has already completed this case study, par�cularly the role of dykes, The main findings have been established. 6.5 The Magdalen Islands Reason: - An island territory that is extremely vulnerable to coastal erosion. - Route 199, the main artery, is vulnerable to coastal erosion in several areas and requires substan�al investments, primarily from the Government of Quebec. - Innova�ve techniques, like recons�tu�on of massive sand dunes and using geotubes in Pointe- aux-Loup, and recons�tu�on of sand dunes in La Grave and Cap-aux-Meules, which are unique in Quebec and could offer an alterna�ve to classic riprap. - Rallying civil society around the idea of adap�ng to climate change in various ways, including through the Regional Round Table and organiza�ons like FragÎles. - A vulnerability study for the airport was conducted in 2020, which predicts major long-term risks.

11 References Archer, D. (2016). The Long Thaw: How Humans Are Changing the Next 100,000 Years of Earth’s Climate. Princeton Science Library, 200 p. Bochow, N., A. Poltronieri, A. Robinson, M. Montoya, M. Rypdal & N. Boers (2023). Overshoo�ng the cri�cal threshold for the Greenland ice sheet. Nature, 622, 528–536. htps://www.nature.com/ar�cles/s41586-023-06503-9 Climate Ac�on Tracker (2022). 2100 Warming Projec�ons: Emissions and expected warming based on pledges and current policies. htps://climateac�ontracker.org/global/temperatures/ Drejza, S., S. Friesinger, P . Bernatchez (2014).

Vulnérabilité des infrastructures rou�ères de l’Est du Québec à l’érosion et à la submersion cô�ère dans un contexte de changements clima�ques : Caractérisa�on des côtes, dynamique hydrosédimentaire et exposi�on des infrastructures rou�ères à l’érosion et à la submersion, Est du Québec, Volume I, Projet X008.1. Laboratoire de dynamique et de ges�on intégrée des zones cô�ères, Université du Québec à Rimouski. Submited to Quebec’s Minister of Transport, March 2014, 226 p. + appendices. Financial Accountability Office of Ontario (FAO) (2022).

CIPI: Transporta�on – Assessing the financial impacts of extreme rainfall, extreme heat and freeze-thaw cycles on transporta�on infrastructure in Ontario. htps://fao-on.org/en/Blog/Publica�ons/cipi-transporta�on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2021).

Chapter 9: Ocean, Cryosphere and Sea Level Change. htps://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/chapter/chapter-9/# Naughten, K. A., P. R. Holland & J. De Rydt (2023). Unavoidable future increase in West Antarc�c ice-shelf mel�ng over the twenty-first century. Nature Climate Change, 23 october 2023. htps://www.nature.com/ar�cles/s41558-023-01818-x Ness, R., Clark, D.G., Bourque, J., Coffman, D., & Beugin, D. (2021). Under Water: The Costs of Climate Change for Canada’s Infrastructure.

Canadian Ins�tute for Climate Choices. htps://climatechoices.ca/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/Infrastructure-English-FINAL-Sep29.pdf Transport Ac�on Canada (Feb. 9, 2023). Ocean Faces Triple Jeopardy. htps://www.transportac�on.ca/regions/atlan�c/ocean-faces-triple-jeopardy/